000 FOPZ11 KNHC 311438 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 3(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) 3(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 4(18) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 2(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 9(26) 2(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 13(37) 6(43) 1(44) X(44) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 10(35) 4(39) 1(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 34 2 30(32) 8(40) 1(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) L CARDENAS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 7 22(29) 3(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) ACAPULCO 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 2(21) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15(26) 2(28) 1(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 164N 1013W 34 35 18(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 12 164N 1013W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 12 164N 1013W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 174N 1028W 34 2 39(41) 12(53) 2(55) X(55) 1(56) X(56) 24 174N 1028W 50 X 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 24 174N 1028W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 183N 1045W 34 X 8( 8) 34(42) 9(51) 5(56) X(56) X(56) 36 183N 1045W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) 36 183N 1045W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 48 190N 1060W 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 19(39) 12(51) 3(54) X(54) 48 190N 1060W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) 48 190N 1060W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 72 205N 1090W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 25(31) 10(41) 1(42) 72 205N 1090W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) 72 205N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 225N 1110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 3(27) 96 225N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 96 225N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 250N 1130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 120 250N 1130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 120 250N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 50 60 65 70 70 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA