000 FOPZ11 KNHC 310844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 5(21) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 5(20) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) 1(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 8(28) 2(30) 1(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 6(26) 1(27) 1(28) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 13(14) 12(26) 2(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) L CARDENAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 17(18) 4(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 9 4(13) X(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) P MALDONADO 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 2(21) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 5(20) 1(21) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 160N 1005W 34 35 16(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 12 160N 1005W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 12 160N 1005W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 169N 1021W 34 1 33(34) 9(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) 24 169N 1021W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 169N 1021W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 178N 1037W 34 X 7( 7) 23(30) 10(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) 36 178N 1037W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 36 178N 1037W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 185N 1053W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) 11(38) 2(40) 1(41) 48 185N 1053W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) 48 185N 1053W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 195N 1080W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 10(37) 2(39) 72 195N 1080W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 72 195N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 215N 1105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) 96 215N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 96 215N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 235N 1125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 120 235N 1125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 120 235N 1125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 55 65 70 65 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB