000 FOPZ11 KNHC 310231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 2(23) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 5(26) 2(28) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 4(24) 1(25) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 11(26) 5(31) 1(32) X(32) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) 9(30) 3(33) X(33) 1(34) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 34 1 17(18) 8(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 5 8(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) 2(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 154N 987W 34 20 13(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) 12 154N 987W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 154N 987W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 164N 1001W 34 1 28(29) 9(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) 1(41) 24 164N 1001W 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 24 164N 1001W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 172N 1016W 34 X 7( 7) 21(28) 7(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) 36 172N 1016W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 36 172N 1016W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 179N 1030W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 8(31) 2(33) 1(34) 48 179N 1030W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 48 179N 1030W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 195N 1060W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 11(33) 2(35) 72 195N 1060W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) 72 195N 1060W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 96 210N 1090W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 5(28) 96 210N 1090W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 96 210N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 225N 1110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 120 225N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 120 225N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 45 50 55 65 75 75 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN