000 FOPZ11 KNHC 302027 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 2100 UTC THU AUG 30 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 3(15) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 3(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 7(25) 2(27) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 6(24) 1(25) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 8(29) 1(30) 1(31) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 11(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 34 1 11(12) 14(26) 4(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P MALDONADO 34 3 15(18) 3(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) P ANGEL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 4(24) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 150N 982W 34 37 15(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 12 150N 982W 50 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 12 150N 982W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 159N 995W 34 3 30(33) 9(42) 2(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 24 159N 995W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 159N 995W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 168N 1009W 34 X 8( 8) 20(28) 9(37) 3(40) X(40) 1(41) 36 168N 1009W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 36 168N 1009W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 175N 1024W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) 8(33) 1(34) 1(35) 48 175N 1024W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) 1(11) 48 175N 1024W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 190N 1055W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 9(31) 3(34) 72 190N 1055W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 72 190N 1055W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 96 203N 1083W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 6(28) 96 203N 1083W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 96 203N 1083W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 215N 1110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 120 215N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 120 215N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 55 65 75 75 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA