000 FOPZ11 KNHC 182034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 2100 UTC WED JUL 18 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 152N 1420W 34 16 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 12 152N 1420W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 12 152N 1420W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 157N 1449W 34 X 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 24 157N 1449W 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 157N 1449W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 162N 1480W 34 X X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 36 162N 1480W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 162N 1480W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 167N 1514W 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) 48 167N 1514W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 167N 1514W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 175N 1575W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 72 175N 1575W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 175N 1575W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 180N 1630W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 96 180N 1630W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 180N 1630W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 180N 1680W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 120 180N 1680W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 180N 1680W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 30 25 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN