000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181431 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 1500 UTC WED JUL 18 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) 1(14) BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 154N 1407W 34 40 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 12 154N 1407W 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 154N 1407W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 159N 1433W 34 1 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 24 159N 1433W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 159N 1433W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 164N 1461W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 36 164N 1461W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 164N 1461W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 168N 1492W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) 48 168N 1492W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 168N 1492W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 175N 1555W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) 72 175N 1555W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 175N 1555W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 180N 1610W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 96 180N 1610W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 180N 1610W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 180N 1660W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 120 180N 1660W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 180N 1660W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 30 30 30 30 25 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN