000 FOPZ11 KNHC 180842 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 0900 UTC WED JUL 18 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) 1(12) BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 154N 1392W 34 53 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 12 154N 1392W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 154N 1392W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 157N 1418W 34 1 21(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 24 157N 1418W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 157N 1418W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 162N 1447W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 36 162N 1447W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 162N 1447W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 167N 1476W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) 48 167N 1476W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 167N 1476W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 175N 1535W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 72 175N 1535W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 72 175N 1535W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 185N 1590W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 96 185N 1590W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 185N 1590W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 185N 1640W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 185N 1640W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 185N 1640W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 30 30 30 30 25 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN