000 FOPZ11 KNHC 172058 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 2100 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 150N 1372W 34 20 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 12 150N 1372W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 150N 1372W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 155N 1397W 34 X 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 24 155N 1397W 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 155N 1397W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 161N 1426W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 36 161N 1426W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 161N 1426W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 167N 1457W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) 48 167N 1457W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 167N 1457W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 180N 1520W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 72 180N 1520W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 180N 1520W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 185N 1565W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 96 185N 1565W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 96 185N 1565W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 190N 1610W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 190N 1610W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 190N 1610W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 30 30 30 25 25 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI