000 FOPZ11 KNHC 141631 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 1700 UTC SAT JUL 14 2007 AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 115N 1285W 34 14 9(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) 12 115N 1285W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 115N 1285W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 120N 1305W 34 1 22(23) 11(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 24 120N 1305W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 24 120N 1305W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 125N 1325W 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 12(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) 36 125N 1325W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 36 125N 1325W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 130N 1350W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 11(37) 2(39) X(39) 48 130N 1350W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) 48 130N 1350W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 135N 1385W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 8(31) 2(33) 72 135N 1385W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 72 135N 1385W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 96 140N 1405W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 4(24) 96 140N 1405W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 96 140N 1405W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 145N 1435W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 120 145N 1435W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 145N 1435W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 35 40 45 50 55 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA