000 FOPZ11 KNHC 312033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 2100 UTC THU MAY 31 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 125N 1167W 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 12 125N 1167W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 12 125N 1167W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 123N 1173W 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) 24 123N 1173W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 123N 1173W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 121N 1179W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) 36 121N 1179W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 121N 1179W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 119N 1185W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 48 119N 1185W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 119N 1185W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 113N 1195W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 72 113N 1195W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 113N 1195W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 105N 1205W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 105N 1205W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 105N 1205W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 20 20 20 20 20 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE