000 FOPZ11 KNHC 310239 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 0300 UTC THU MAY 31 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 132N 1156W 34 18 5(23) 1(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 12 132N 1156W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 132N 1156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 132N 1164W 34 6 7(13) 5(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 24 132N 1164W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 132N 1164W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 131N 1173W 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) 36 131N 1173W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 131N 1173W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 129N 1182W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) 48 129N 1182W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 129N 1182W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 124N 1195W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 72 124N 1195W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 124N 1195W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 115N 1210W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 96 115N 1210W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 115N 1210W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 105N 1225W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 105N 1225W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 105N 1225W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN