000 FOPZ11 KNHC 302037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 2100 UTC WED MAY 30 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 135N 1155W 34 8 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) 12 135N 1155W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 135N 1155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 135N 1164W 34 3 7(10) 5(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 24 135N 1164W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 135N 1164W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 134N 1173W 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) 36 134N 1173W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 134N 1173W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 131N 1182W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) 1(15) 48 131N 1182W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 131N 1182W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 125N 1195W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 72 125N 1195W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 125N 1195W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 117N 1207W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 96 117N 1207W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 117N 1207W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 105N 1225W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 105N 1225W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 105N 1225W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE