000 FOPZ11 KNHC 301436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 1500 UTC WED MAY 30 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 136N 1151W 34 18 5(23) 1(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 12 136N 1151W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 136N 1151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 137N 1161W 34 5 8(13) 4(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 24 137N 1161W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 137N 1161W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 137N 1171W 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) 36 137N 1171W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 137N 1171W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 134N 1181W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) 1(15) 48 134N 1181W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 134N 1181W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 128N 1194W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 72 128N 1194W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 128N 1194W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 120N 1207W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 96 120N 1207W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 120N 1207W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 110N 1223W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 120 110N 1223W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 110N 1223W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 25 25 25 25 20 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE