000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 1500 UTC TUE MAY 29 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 125N 1148W 34 77 4(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 12 125N 1148W 50 3 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 12 125N 1148W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 124N 1156W 34 36 24(60) 9(69) 1(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) 24 124N 1156W 50 1 9(10) 5(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 24 124N 1156W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 124N 1168W 34 3 23(26) 24(50) 4(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) 36 124N 1168W 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) 36 124N 1168W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 125N 1179W 34 1 6( 7) 23(30) 9(39) 7(46) 2(48) X(48) 48 125N 1179W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 48 125N 1179W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 125N 1195W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 11(27) 3(30) X(30) 72 125N 1195W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 72 125N 1195W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 125N 1205W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 9(17) 4(21) X(21) 96 125N 1205W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 125N 1205W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 125N 1215W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) 120 125N 1215W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 120 125N 1215W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 45 45 40 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN