000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290835 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 0900 UTC TUE MAY 29 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 123N 1146W 34 64 6(70) 3(73) X(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) 12 123N 1146W 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 12 123N 1146W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 122N 1157W 34 13 33(46) 8(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) 1(58) 24 122N 1157W 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 24 122N 1157W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 122N 1167W 34 2 22(24) 18(42) 6(48) 3(51) 1(52) X(52) 36 122N 1167W 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 36 122N 1167W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 122N 1175W 34 1 8( 9) 22(31) 7(38) 7(45) 2(47) X(47) 48 122N 1175W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 48 122N 1175W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 122N 1190W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 10(28) 3(31) 1(32) 72 122N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 72 122N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 122N 1205W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 1(19) 96 122N 1205W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 122N 1205W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 122N 1215W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 120 122N 1215W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 122N 1215W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 45 40 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME