000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290236 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 0300 UTC TUE MAY 29 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 124N 1144W 34 56 8(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) 12 124N 1144W 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 12 124N 1144W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 123N 1154W 34 16 30(46) 8(54) 2(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) 24 123N 1154W 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 24 123N 1154W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 122N 1164W 34 2 21(23) 19(42) 6(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) 36 122N 1164W 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 36 122N 1164W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 121N 1175W 34 X 7( 7) 18(25) 11(36) 7(43) 2(45) 1(46) 48 121N 1175W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 48 121N 1175W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 120N 1190W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 10(27) 3(30) 1(31) 72 120N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 72 120N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 120N 1202W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 4(21) 1(22) 96 120N 1202W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 96 120N 1202W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 120N 1215W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 120 120N 1215W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 120N 1215W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 45 40 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB