000
FOPA15 PHFO 122037
PWSCP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2              
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012019         
2100 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
22N 164W       34 31   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
NECKER         34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X  25(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GARDNER PINN   34  X   2( 2)  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
GARDNER PINN   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 170W       34  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MARO REEF      34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BIRCHARD