000 FOPA12 PHFO 241437 PWSCP2 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X 2( 2) 64(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) 29(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X 1( 1) 47(48) 27(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) 15(15) 24(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 15(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) X(34) X(34) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 45(49) X(49) X(49) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) 21N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 1(26) X(26) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) X(44) X(44) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 2(34) X(34) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) X(46) X(46) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) X(38) 1(39) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 1(42) X(42) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 2(36) X(36) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 3(37) X(37) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) X(29) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) X(24) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARO REEF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LAYSAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA