000 FONT15 KNHC 220245 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 7( 9) 14(23) 5(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 21 33(54) 3(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MAYAGUANA 50 2 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GRAND TURK 64 57 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA