000 FONT15 KNHC 160832 PWSAT5 HURRICANE INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 30 47 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 31 48 34 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 47 60 20 16 NA NA NA HURRICANE 53 6 2 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 50 5 2 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 3 1 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 1 X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 40KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 81 6(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) LA PESCO MX 50 33 8(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) LA PESCO MX 64 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 20 12(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) TAMPICO MX 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPICO MX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH