000 FONT15 KNHC 061455 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 24 32 46 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 2 2 35 22 21 TROPICAL STORM 55 43 33 35 38 35 25 HURRICANE 45 56 64 63 3 11 8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 41 46 47 41 3 9 6 HUR CAT 2 3 7 13 15 X 2 1 HUR CAT 3 1 2 4 6 X 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 45KT 60KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 5(27) X(27) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 14(27) 1(28) X(28) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 17(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 38(53) 7(60) X(60) X(60) BELIZE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 2 10(12) 37(49) 4(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) GUANAJA 50 X 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BLUEFIELDS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH