000 FONT15 KNHC 060836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 29 32 43 TROP DEPRESSION 3 9 8 10 38 18 27 TROPICAL STORM 90 74 63 58 31 41 28 HURRICANE 7 16 27 29 3 9 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 14 22 23 2 9 2 HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 5 X 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 60KT 60KT 35KT 50KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) X(19) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) BELIZE 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 33(45) 6(51) X(51) X(51) BELIZE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANAJA 34 1 9(10) 38(48) 7(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GUANAJA 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN