000 FONT15 KNHC 052035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 4 13 23 27 TROP DEPRESSION 7 11 11 12 24 19 7 TROPICAL STORM 89 76 67 56 48 44 40 HURRICANE 4 12 20 28 15 14 26 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 11 16 23 12 12 22 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 4 3 1 3 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 40KT 55KT 70KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 1(21) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 4(23) X(23) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) BELIZE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 20(40) X(40) X(40) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GUANAJA 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 25(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH