000 FONT15 KNHC 041443 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1500 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 X 1 2 8 17 TROP DEPRESSION 7 10 4 3 4 16 21 TROPICAL STORM 89 77 50 44 34 49 48 HURRICANE 4 12 46 53 61 27 14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 11 37 37 40 22 12 HUR CAT 2 X 1 6 11 14 4 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 2 4 7 2 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 65KT 70KT 80KT 70KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) 7(40) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 1(29) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) 4(31) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) 1(24) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 28(44) 2(46) X(46) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 5(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA