000 FONT15 KNHC 032033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 2100 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 3 5 9 TROP DEPRESSION 6 9 14 12 8 9 7 TROPICAL STORM 90 78 70 63 53 41 44 HURRICANE 4 12 14 23 36 45 41 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 11 12 19 27 32 28 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 6 9 10 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 2 4 2 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 75KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CURACAO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 11(30) 4(34) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 3(30) 1(31) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 14(33) 2(35) X(35) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE