000 FONT15 KNHC 031453 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1500 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 3 3 11 TROP DEPRESSION 6 9 9 9 8 7 11 TROPICAL STORM 90 77 68 57 53 43 39 HURRICANE 4 13 23 33 36 46 40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 11 19 26 27 32 26 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 5 6 10 11 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 2 4 3 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 75KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CURACAO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 9(28) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 20(38) 4(42) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 3(36) X(36) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 32(39) 1(40) X(40) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA