000 FONT15 KNHC 020240 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 0300 UTC THU AUG 02 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 3 3 4 6 7 TROP DEPRESSION 33 23 17 14 14 13 12 TROPICAL STORM 64 69 69 63 57 53 50 HURRICANE 1 5 11 20 24 29 31 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 9 16 20 23 24 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 3 4 5 6 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 1 2 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 8(30) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 2(31) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) X(22) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) X(23) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 24(44) X(44) X(44) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 6(44) X(44) X(44) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 10(10) 29(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART