000 FONT15 KNHC 081458 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 2 6 22 TROP DEPRESSION 2 6 7 7 7 12 22 TROPICAL STORM 85 76 64 53 49 48 38 HURRICANE 13 17 29 40 43 34 19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 15 25 30 30 26 14 HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 7 9 6 4 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 3 3 2 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 70KT 70KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 5(15) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 5(20) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 8(22) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 8(28) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 7(28) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 16(27) 11(38) 7(45) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 5(25) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 8(21) 5(26) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 2(22) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) 5(18) 3(21) FRONTERA MX 34 36 6(42) 2(44) 1(45) 2(47) 1(48) 1(49) MERIDA MX 34 9 13(22) 6(28) 3(31) 4(35) 1(36) 2(38) MERIDA MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BELIZE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN