000 FONT15 KNHC 072102 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 2 3 7 26 TROP DEPRESSION 7 11 7 7 7 13 19 TROPICAL STORM 89 77 63 52 47 42 33 HURRICANE 4 11 29 39 43 38 22 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 9 24 30 31 26 15 HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 7 9 8 6 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 3 3 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 75KT 75KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 8(25) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 9(26) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 20(35) 8(43) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 8(29) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 13(22) 7(29) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 13(24) 6(30) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) VERACRUZ MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 6(15) 7(22) 3(25) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 20 10(30) 10(40) 3(43) 3(46) 1(47) 1(48) FRONTERA MX 50 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) MERIDA MX 34 1 8( 9) 13(22) 7(29) 5(34) 2(36) 1(37) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BELIZE 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE