000 FONT15 KNHC 041442 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1500 UTC THU AUG 04 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 7 7 8 8 9 14 TROP DEPRESSION 12 44 22 18 12 9 18 TROPICAL STORM 85 47 64 60 52 47 51 HURRICANE 3 2 7 15 28 35 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 2 6 13 22 28 15 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 4 6 2 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 2 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 35KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 65KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 3(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 3(27) X(27) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 2(24) X(24) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 22(40) 3(43) X(43) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 11(45) 2(47) X(47) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 9(45) X(45) X(45) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 9(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) MAYAGUANA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 13(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LES CAYES 34 11 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 66 3(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO PLATA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA