000 FONT15 KNHC 030837 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 12 12 9 11 13 TROP DEPRESSION 4 23 42 32 20 13 12 TROPICAL STORM 90 68 43 49 55 50 46 HURRICANE 7 6 3 7 16 26 29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 5 3 6 13 21 22 HUR CAT 2 1 1 X 1 2 3 5 HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 40KT 35KT 40KT 50KT 60KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 4(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 4(25) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 3(24) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 3(25) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 13(35) 2(37) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 6(35) X(35) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 3(28) X(28) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 17(33) 1(34) X(34) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) 1(25) 1(26) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) 2(20) X(20) 1(21) GRAND TURK 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 20(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 10 19(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CAPE BEATA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 5 24(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SANTO DOMINGO 34 46 16(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SANTO DOMINGO 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH