000 FONT15 KNHC 030237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 11 15 11 10 14 TROP DEPRESSION 3 9 39 40 24 16 15 TROPICAL STORM 90 77 45 41 54 54 44 HURRICANE 7 14 4 4 11 20 28 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 12 3 4 10 17 22 HUR CAT 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 5 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 35KT 35KT 45KT 55KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 2(19) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) 3(29) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 2(27) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) 1(21) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 3(24) X(24) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 2(24) X(24) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) GRAND TURK 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 10(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CAPE BEATA 34 1 13(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 30(32) 14(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 12 55(67) 3(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 34 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAN JUAN 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN