000 FONT15 KNHC 021450 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 3 14 16 14 18 TROP DEPRESSION 15 16 19 37 30 19 17 TROPICAL STORM 82 75 65 45 47 51 45 HURRICANE 2 7 13 5 7 15 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 12 4 7 13 16 HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 1 3 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 35KT 40KT 50KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 4(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 2(22) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 2(18) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 1(17) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) 3(30) X(30) 1(31) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 8(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) 1(21) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 9( 9) 27(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 6 13(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JUAN 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) $$ FORECASTER AVILA