000 FONT15 KNHC 061431 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 1500 UTC MON SEP 06 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 19 36 62 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 5 6 49 46 37 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 72 75 30 19 2 NA NA HURRICANE 23 18 1 X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 22 16 1 X X NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 2 X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 55KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HOUSTON TX 34 1 9(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AUSTIN TX 34 X 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 15(16) 12(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 3 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 950W 34 7 12(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PORT O CONNOR 34 4 26(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 5 53(58) 5(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 25 26(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 51 36(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 5 41(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 34 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GFMX 250N 960W 50 32 4(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 250N 960W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 34 8 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPICO MX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI