000 FONT15 KNHC 102333 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010 2330 UTC WED AUG 11 2010 AT 2330Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 5 5 11 29 47 NA TROP DEPRESSION 64 40 33 36 32 30 NA TROPICAL STORM 34 54 57 47 34 21 NA HURRICANE X 2 5 6 5 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 5 6 4 2 NA HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) 2(18) 2(20) X(20) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 19(20) 16(36) 2(38) X(38) 1(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) 2(22) 2(24) X(24) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 9(27) 4(31) 2(33) X(33) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS SC 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 5(34) 2(36) X(36) STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 12(36) 4(40) 3(43) X(43) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) 5(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 287N 884W 34 X 11(11) 26(37) 5(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) GFMX 287N 884W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 287N 884W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 6(19) X(19) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 9(36) 2(38) X(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 6(20) 3(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 11(29) 3(32) X(32) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 13(26) 4(30) X(30) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH