000 FONT15 KNHC 290234 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 8 13 15 14 15 TROP DEPRESSION 18 24 31 31 23 17 17 TROPICAL STORM 79 68 56 48 50 49 42 HURRICANE 2 5 6 8 12 20 26 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 4 5 7 10 15 19 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 2 3 5 HUR CAT 3 1 X X X 1 1 2 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 10(34) X(34) X(34) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 8(29) X(29) X(29) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 19(19) 15(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 21(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN