000 FONT15 KNHC 160307 PWSAT5 HURRICANE OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 0300 UTC THU OCT 16 2008 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 3 6 11 TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 8 18 22 TROPICAL STORM X 1 8 24 47 49 45 HURRICANE 99 99 92 74 42 27 22 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 12 34 44 29 20 17 HUR CAT 2 16 35 35 19 9 4 3 HUR CAT 3 73 44 19 10 4 2 2 HUR CAT 4 9 7 3 2 1 X X HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 105KT 100KT 90KT 80KT 65KT 55KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN JUAN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SAINT THOMAS 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SAINT CROIX 64 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAINT MAARTEN 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAINT MAARTEN 50 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT MAARTEN 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 30 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BARBUDA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GUADELOUPE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN