000 FONT15 KNHC 032149 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 2200 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008 AT 2200Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 7 52 X X TROP DEPRESSION 10 14 17 18 32 X X TROPICAL STORM 88 76 55 62 15 X X HURRICANE 2 8 24 14 2 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 21 11 2 X X HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 60KT 45KT 20KT 0KT 0KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 7 10(17) 2(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 61 5(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 890W 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 46(49) 8(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 12(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 10(10) 14(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 13(13) 30(43) 4(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 11(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 15(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 21(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 18(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 13(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE