000 FONT15 KNHC 120831 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 301N 491W 34 21 6(27) 3(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 12 301N 491W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 301N 491W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 304N 489W 34 17 6(23) 4(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 24 304N 489W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 304N 489W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 309N 489W 34 9 7(16) 5(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 36 309N 489W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 309N 489W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 323N 486W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 48 323N 486W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 323N 486W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 25 25 25 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN