000 FONT15 KNHC 211454 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007 1500 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 18 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 11 20(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PENSACOLA FL 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 10 9(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 290N 870W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 2 20(22) 13(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MOBILE AL 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X 16(16) 16(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GULFPORT MS 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 X 8( 8) 10(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 297N 866W 34 24 13(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 12 297N 866W 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 12 297N 866W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 301N 881W 34 5 23(28) 9(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 24 301N 881W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 24 301N 881W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 306N 903W 34 X 5( 5) 20(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 36 306N 903W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 306N 903W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 315N 930W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 48 315N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 315N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 40 30 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN