000 FONT15 KNHC 151543 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007 1530 UTC WED AUG 15 2007 AT 1530Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUSTIN TX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 9 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT O CONNOR 34 4 11(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 3 22(25) 5(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 23 26(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 270N 960W 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 4 26(30) 4(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 7 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 260N 955W 34 35 19(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 12 260N 955W 50 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 12 260N 955W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 265N 975W 34 4 35(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 24 265N 975W 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 265N 975W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 270N 990W 34 X 19(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 36 270N 990W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 270N 990W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 285N 1005W 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 48 285N 1005W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 285N 1005W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 25 20 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA