000 FONT14 KNHC 131455 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 4(22) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 2(31) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 9(29) 1(30) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 1(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 3(25) X(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 27(48) 4(52) X(52) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 2(23) X(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 1(29) X(29) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 18(33) 11(44) 1(45) X(45) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 10(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) 1(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 16(17) 14(31) 4(35) 4(39) 2(41) X(41) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA