000 FONT14 KNHC 192033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN