000 FONT14 KNHC 220833 PWSAT4 HURRICANE DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) X(21) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) X(24) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) X(24) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 2(32) X(32) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 1(32) X(32) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 23(37) 1(38) X(38) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 19(34) 1(35) X(35) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 14(30) X(30) X(30) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI