000 FONT14 KNHC 200834 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 10(27) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA