000 FONT14 KNHC 250837 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 3 4 6 TROP DEPRESSION 2 8 12 15 13 14 18 TROPICAL STORM 92 78 71 64 60 59 58 HURRICANE 7 13 15 18 24 23 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 11 13 16 20 20 16 HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X 1 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN