000 FONT14 KNHC 272045 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 31 58 77 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 3 39 38 21 TROPICAL STORM 29 19 19 41 26 5 2 HURRICANE 71 81 81 56 4 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 64 56 50 40 3 X X HUR CAT 2 5 18 21 11 1 X X HUR CAT 3 1 6 8 4 X X X HUR CAT 4 X 1 2 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 85KT 75KT 35KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARCO ISLAND 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 6 5(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ST MARKS FL 34 7 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 34 20 8(28) 3(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 290N 850W 34 35 5(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PANAMA CITY FL 34 24 11(35) 4(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 8(10) 7(17) 5(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) PENSACOLA FL 34 23 30(53) 8(61) 3(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 79 8(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GFMX 290N 870W 50 6 13(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 15 43(58) 16(74) 3(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) MOBILE AL 50 X 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MOBILE AL 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 17 55(72) 15(87) 3(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) GULFPORT MS 50 X 10(10) 30(40) 6(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) GULFPORT MS 64 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) STENNIS SC 34 13 60(73) 17(90) 3(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) STENNIS SC 50 X 9( 9) 42(51) 9(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) STENNIS SC 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) 7(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) BURAS LA 34 41 52(93) 4(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BURAS LA 50 1 44(45) 29(74) 4(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) BURAS LA 64 X 13(13) 32(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 890W 34 87 12(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 5 59(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 890W 64 1 31(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) JACKSON MS 34 1 12(13) 27(40) 19(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 10 63(73) 20(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 9( 9) 47(56) 10(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 1( 1) 28(29) 9(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) GFMX 280N 910W 34 9 39(48) 15(63) 4(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 4 38(42) 36(78) 11(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 2( 2) 26(28) 18(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 25(28) 36(64) 12(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 16(31) 4(35) 1(36) X(36) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 7(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 10(31) 1(32) X(32) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 11(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART