000 FONT14 KNHC 270244 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 0300 UTC MON AUG 27 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 3 45 73 TROP DEPRESSION 1 1 1 6 8 33 20 TROPICAL STORM 70 39 21 28 51 13 5 HURRICANE 29 60 78 66 38 10 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 27 50 50 38 25 6 1 HUR CAT 2 1 8 21 17 9 2 1 HUR CAT 3 1 2 6 9 3 2 X HUR CAT 4 X X 2 2 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 70KT 80KT 85KT 70KT 30KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 6 X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARCO ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 44 2(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) VENICE FL 34 35 4(39) 1(40) 1(41) X(41) 1(42) X(42) TAMPA FL 34 17 6(23) 2(25) 2(27) X(27) 1(28) X(28) CEDAR KEY FL 34 8 8(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) 1(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 7( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 34 2 9(11) 8(19) 3(22) 4(26) 1(27) 1(28) APALACHICOLA 34 5 15(20) 13(33) 5(38) 4(42) 1(43) 1(44) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 10 24(34) 12(46) 2(48) 4(52) 2(54) X(54) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 14(17) 19(36) 6(42) 6(48) 2(50) X(50) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 11(28) 2(30) 1(31) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 11(11) 28(39) 16(55) 9(64) 2(66) 1(67) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 1(18) 1(19) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 36(41) 34(75) 6(81) 2(83) 1(84) X(84) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 2( 2) 25(27) 7(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) 21(57) 14(71) 2(73) 1(74) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 12(28) 2(30) 1(31) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 X 6( 6) 34(40) 27(67) 13(80) 2(82) 1(83) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 16(41) 2(43) 1(44) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 2(20) X(20) STENNIS SC 34 X 5( 5) 33(38) 28(66) 15(81) 2(83) 1(84) STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 18(42) 2(44) 1(45) STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 1(21) 1(22) BURAS LA 34 X 11(11) 46(57) 25(82) 7(89) 1(90) 1(91) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 16(16) 27(43) 13(56) 2(58) X(58) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 10(30) 1(31) 1(32) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 32(34) 48(82) 8(90) 2(92) 1(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 2( 2) 46(48) 13(61) 5(66) 1(67) 1(68) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 19(19) 14(33) 4(37) 1(38) X(38) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 30(48) 5(53) X(53) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) 29(63) 17(80) 3(83) X(83) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 20(41) 1(42) 1(43) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 6( 6) 26(32) 18(50) 12(62) 2(64) X(64) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 10(26) 3(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 26(42) 22(64) 6(70) X(70) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 3(28) X(28) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 22(54) 5(59) X(59) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22) X(22) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 14(30) 4(34) 1(35) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 4(21) X(21) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 15(23) 4(27) 1(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 2(15) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN