000 FONT14 KNHC 260839 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 0900 UTC TUE JUN 26 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 5 12 18 29 29 33 TROP DEPRESSION 22 34 37 34 30 23 20 TROPICAL STORM 75 57 47 43 38 42 39 HURRICANE 2 4 4 5 4 6 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 3 3 4 4 6 7 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 30KT 35KT 40KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) MAYPORT NS 34 4 3( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 7(24) 2(26) 1(27) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 5 4( 9) 5(14) 5(19) 5(24) 2(26) 1(27) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 10 6(16) 6(22) 6(28) 7(35) 1(36) X(36) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 16 9(25) 7(32) 4(36) 5(41) 1(42) X(42) ORLANDO FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 7 6(13) 6(19) 6(25) 5(30) 2(32) 1(33) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 7 6(13) 6(19) 6(25) 5(30) 2(32) 1(33) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 4( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 4(21) 2(23) 1(24) W PALM BEACH 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 2(15) 1(16) MIAMI FL 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) MARATHON FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MARCO ISLAND 34 5 2( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) FT MYERS FL 34 12 5(17) 3(20) 2(22) 2(24) 1(25) 1(26) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 4 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 19 7(26) 3(29) 2(31) 2(33) X(33) 1(34) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 46 8(54) 2(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) GFMX 290N 850W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 15 5(20) 3(23) 1(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH