000 FONT14 KNHC 242034 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 2100 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 7 20 36 45 TROP DEPRESSION 3 12 15 14 22 30 29 TROPICAL STORM 90 77 64 53 43 31 25 HURRICANE 7 10 18 25 15 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 8 15 21 13 2 2 HUR CAT 2 1 1 2 4 2 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 60KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) MAYPORT NS 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 4( 8) 4(12) 4(16) 4(20) 2(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) ORLANDO FL 34 5 3( 8) 4(12) 3(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) PATRICK AFB 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) FT MYERS FL 34 4 2( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) VENICE FL 34 9 3(12) 5(17) 4(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 16 6(22) 6(28) 5(33) 5(38) X(38) 1(39) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 33 9(42) 7(49) 5(54) 4(58) 1(59) X(59) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 34 16(50) 7(57) 5(62) 5(67) X(67) X(67) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 48 12(60) 7(67) 4(71) 3(74) X(74) X(74) ST MARKS FL 50 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 3 9(12) 5(17) 5(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) APALACHICOLA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 12 10(22) 7(29) 4(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 290N 850W 64 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 2 8(10) 5(15) 4(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 5( 7) 6(13) 2(15) 5(20) 2(22) 1(23) PENSACOLA FL 34 8 12(20) 12(32) 4(36) 6(42) 2(44) 1(45) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 2 4( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 2 5( 7) 8(15) 6(21) 6(27) 2(29) X(29) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 5(20) 2(22) 1(23) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS SC 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 6(19) 2(21) 1(22) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 7(23) 2(25) 1(26) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA